Friday, September 23, 2016

Quote of the day...

For the past several months I’ve been reporting on how the general market sentiment has tilted notably bearish. Conventional market wisdom – as I’ve suggested ad nauseam – says that’s a good thing. 

Thursday, September 22, 2016

This Week's Message: Election Year Angst!

There’s definitely something in the air. The question du jour from clients seems to be, words to the effect: “Do you think the market’s about to crash?” or “I think the market’s about to crash, what do you think?”, or “my kid in Connecticut says everything’s about to crash and that we should sell everything now, what do you think?” or some other iteration of “the sky is about to fall, I can just feel it!”

Wednesday, September 21, 2016

Market Commentary: Good sweat...

So what's got the market so cheery? Is it the Fed not raising rates and not sounding too aggressive toward that aim? Well, sure! The market -- after the Fed's announcement and Janet Yellen's press conference -- spiked higher in a big way, waffled a bit, then smashed through what had been recent resistance.

Tuesday, September 20, 2016

Why the odds favor no rate hike tomorrow, despite recent rhetoric...

The Fed and The Bank of Japan are holding their respective policy meetings today. I see a Fed rate hike as being highly improbable, given that recent data – while on balance okay – doesn’t seem to be threatening enough relative to the signals the voting members have been sending. Plus, the dollar’s been rallying lately (first chart) and the Fed is clearly concerned about bringing back the strong currency scenario that some would say has tempered the recovery over the past couple of years:   click charts to enlarge

Monday, September 19, 2016

Quote of the day...

It's been nearly eight years since "The Greatest Recession Since the Great Depression". And, yet, the event to some was so traumatic that -- to this day -- a market dip/correction, or a headline suggesting some similar scenario is brewing, brings them to palpitations and cold sweats as they fear it's 2008 all over again. I know this because I counsel some of those somes. 

Sunday, September 18, 2016

Quote of day...

Today's quote came to me from a firm that often produces decent research in my estimation. However, in my estimation, it gets a little sketchy on some of its ads.

I won't source it because I don't want to entirely discredit its author and, quite frankly, because this promising of the moon is consistent among virtually all of those firms who make their money by convincing the everyday investor trader that their research (this firm's, at times, is spot on) is better than the competition's; that they can consistently figure out the unfiguroutable.

As you read the below, picture an accompanying photo (I left it out to protect the innocent ignorant opportunistic), of, I'm guessing, an early thirties (no older for sure) rosy-cheeked young man with thick brown locks. Yep, he would be the ungrizzled genius who's so crazy rich, and charitable, as to be willing to send a tip to regular folk that will surely bulge their coffers, at the expense of his own (so, nope!). I.e., when one's done the research and has great conviction in the prospects for a stock, one quietly accumulates it before the world catches wind, then makes a bundle when --- as the world catches wind --- the stock sores.
Don't miss this opportunity to get in on low-priced gems primed for a breakout.
This is a terrific time to snap up shares. In fact, Monday morning, I plan to post a stock that is not likely to be under $10 for long. Earnings estimates are surging upward and there is plenty of other good news.
Doesn't mean he (or they) hasn't done the research and doesn't have the conviction; it simply means that it's a whole lot easier/profitable to get people to pay you a fee for a service about trading (as opposed to investing in) stocks, than it is to actually trade (as opposed to invest in) stocks.

Thursday, September 15, 2016

This Week's Message...

So last night, while driving home from the office, I'm listening to CNBC Asia. The guest, an American analyst, or guru, told the story of a U.S. economy that is on the cusp of recession and a Fed that was not only not going to raise its benchmark interest rate this year, but that there's a 50% chance that they'll cut it back to zero at their December meeting. He contended that the dollar's going to tank and the yen is going to rally hard. "Go cash and gold" were his parting words, then came the commercial break.

So I hit my car radio preset that sends me to Bloomberg Radio --- in the evening you get Bloomberg Asia. Their guest, an American analyst, or guru, told the story of a U.S. economy on the upswing and a Fed that'll very likely raise its rate this December. He contended that the dollar's risk is to the upside and that the yen is destined to finally do what the Bank of Japan has been efforting mightily to make it do, tank! His advice was, if recollection serves (the message from the CNBC guy seemed to stick harder with me), to stay long global equities and beware the bond market and gold.