Thursday, February 23, 2017

This Week's Message: Is Over-Optimism About To Derail The Market?

Investors are at 'maximum optimism' and have a letdown coming.
My client, we'll call him Bob (because that's his name), says:
This thing has to come down. It just can't keep going up like this.
My other client, we'll call him Pete ("), says:
It's got to come crashing down.

Wednesday, February 22, 2017

Saturday, February 18, 2017

Quote of the Day: Two Things -- The Market and Human Nature -- Never Change

While the world evolves; while advances in technology change the way we work, play and interact -- and while untold time and expense is wasted on trying to predict markets, two things never change.

From Richard Smitten's excellent Jesse Livermore biography:
...human nature never changes. Therefore, the stock market never changes. Only the faces, the pockets, the suckers and the manipulators, the wars, the disasters, and the technologies change. The market itself never changes. How can it? Human nature never changes, and human nature runs the market-not reason, not economics, and certainly not logic. It is our human emotions that drive the market, as they do most other things on this planet.

Be VERY Careful What You Ask For!!

I happen to know that a good number of my clients and friends are not sympathetic to my resistance to the present protectionist (call it America first, if you like) tone.

And while I suspect that those who I'm new to (who don't know my political bents) see my position as somewhat political, I assure you, it's not! It's about business and, frankly, it's about freedom.

Thursday, February 16, 2017

This Week's Message: All About Trump? -- OR -- Not Sitting On Pins and Needles...

If you're like me, and the oddsmakers, you thought the notion that Donald J. Trump would win the presidency was the definition of a long shot. And, if you're like me -- and 90% of the pundits, and 100% of the just-in-case put buyers -- you thought the idea that, should the unlikely happen, the market would rally right out of the gate was the definition of the definition of a long shot.

Wednesday, February 15, 2017

Market Commentary: Trend Intact (video)

Click play button then icon in lower right corner for full screen. The video will come into focus after a few seconds:

Tuesday, February 14, 2017

Thought of the Day: Pursuing Pay

I think it's safe to say that, save for independently wealthy philanthropists, the majority of the world's working-age population spend their workdays in pursuit of pay.

Are you ever tempted by the internet ad, TV infomercial or Bloomberg/CNBC TV/Radio spot touting some genius's sure-fire trading program?

Every once in awhile a client will ask me what I think about so-and-so, the guy who says he made X million trading stocks in a tough market, and is eager to teach the world how he did it.

Now, ads aren't cheap, and I never see the guy-in-question's name atop the list of the world's richest traders. Hmm...

So, is it true that the gent is so incredibly generous that he would spend his own money to make you and me richer? Of course not, his program is for sale. He hopes to make more money selling his strategy than it costs him to run the ads.

Okay, so the guy, like virtually everyone else, is spending his days in pursuit of pay. So, you tell me, what are the odds that his strategy works? You got it, exactly zero! For one, he'd not need to sell his strategy to make money if his strategy really made money. And two, under no circumstances would a pursuing-pay trader ever share his successful strategy with the world; at least never while it's working. He has to have the rest of us buying and selling into his sells and buys for his strategy to work.