Thursday, August 17, 2017

Quick commentary on today's action...

Told you not to hold your breath.

Took a moment and added the following to my market diary this morning:


8/17/17

Well, so much for the VIX staying calm. As I type, the S&P 500 Volatility Index is up 25% on the morning. The Dow and the S&P themselves are flirting with 1% declines. Clearly, although 1% index declines are nothing to get excited about, there’s fear in the market today – if, that is, the VIX is any indication. Surprisingly, however, gold and bonds are only up roughly .5% each. That wouldn’t be your definition of panicky risk-off action…

Wednesday, August 16, 2017

Quick Comment on Today's Action

I know, I'm out of the office, but, good or bad, I presently have a connection :)!

I just scribbled (so to speak) the following into my market diary. Thought you might find it interesting, because -- only for this very moment -- it might help put the noise of the week into its proper market perspective.

After this, I should be leaving you alone for the next couple of days. But don't hold your breath :)

Tuesday, August 15, 2017

Chart of the Day

If you're wondering why we've stepped up the volatility reminders of late, it's not because we're feeling bearish these days (in fact our data says stocks remain solidly in an uptrend), it's because we've been doing this a very long time. And, thus, we've learned that even the best of bull runs are replete with multi-point pullbacks. And, per the chart below, it's been awhile since the market's experienced even your garden variety 5% hit.

Quote of the Day: Our trade deficit says we are a very rich country. I.e., be careful what you ask for!!

I can't recall the last time I quoted a sitting politician, other than in pejorative fashion, that is. Well, to my very pleasant surprise, Senator James Lankford basically understands international trade.

Sunday, August 13, 2017

Chart of the Day: North Korea -- and the market -- in the '90s

As stated in yesterday's lead-in to our quote of the day, we should be careful diminishing such things as the present conflict with North Korea. Yet we must also acknowledge that the more the media outlets can -- for any reason whatsoever -- grab our attention, the more they can show paying advertisers how adept they are at grabbing our attention.

Saturday, August 12, 2017

Where's the Inflation??? Well, just wait...

Yes, the economy is for the moment on solid footing. Hence the Fed's recent rate hikes and signaling that they're ready to reduce the monster of a balance sheet (treasuries and mortgage backed securities) they grew as they saved the free world (a little sarcasm there).

Quote of the Day: Hyperbole is profitable...

No doubt, the news has been troubling this week. And while we should be careful diminishing such things, we should also be cognizant of the fact that the media (whose duty, I acknowledge, is to report) benefits markedly when its product spawns trouble in the minds of its customers. Per the last line in the opening paragraph to Bespoke Investment Group's weekly message: