Saturday, May 27, 2017

Quote of the Day

I can virtually assure you, any ad for a sure fire investing/trading system isn't worth the cost of whatever medium utilized to bring it to you (in the olden days we said "the paper it's printed on").

Why? Because the system's seller wants to, well, sell it you. I.e., the person is out to make a buck. I mean, if the system works, the last thing in the world it's inventor would do is advertise it.

Per this quote from Rishi K. Narang's revealing Inside the Black Box: The Simple Truth About Quantitative Trading 
"I'd sell you my kids before I'd sell you my data, and I'm not selling you my kids."
---Anonymous quantitative futures trader 

Thursday, May 25, 2017

This Week's Message: What Motivates the Seers

RBC's guy feels very good about the market these days:              emphasis mine...
(Bloomberg) -- Risk assets should continue higher amid an economy that’s in good shape, barring “some exogenous event,” and “bearish arguments appear to be increasingly contrived,” RBC strategists led by Jonathan Golub write in a note. * Drivers of market upside include: synchronized global pickup, easier lending conditions, improving consumer situation, renormalization of rates and corporate profits.....
And, clearly, he's in no mood for dissenting opinions.

Sunday, May 21, 2017

Four Types of Investments -- AND -- This Week's Video

I play a lot of basketball, and, as my son and the dudes I play with will attest, I like to attempt three-pointers. In that success enhances the enjoyment of virtually any endeavor, I knew from the start (my late start [not surpassing the 5'5" mark till after highschool and, thus, being a wrestler during my formative years]) that if I was to score enough to justify my itchy trigger finger, I had to learn good shooting fundamentals. While I'm fully aware that 100% from the field is infinitely beyond my reach, I know that if I can stay in rhythm, if my form is sound and if I practice good shot selection, my odds of maintaining a respectable enough percentage to keep me from being the lowly last pick come time to select the teams increase dramatically.

America: A Talent Magnet!

Edward O. Thorp, one of history's great investors, has lived a fascinating life! While nearing the end of his amazing, and instructive, autobiography A Man For All Markets, I found myself pondering the heightened nationalist sentiment that (recent French election notwithstanding) seems to be gaining traction throughout the developed world.

Friday, May 19, 2017

This Week's Message: The Cure Can Hurt a Little - OR - The Unavoidable Fact - OR - They Come and They Go

I sense a little hesitation among some clients these days -- that is, a hesitant feeling about global markets. This, frankly, I welcome, especially during a bull market. It speaks to our clients' understanding that stock prices forever fluctuate. It says that they're not the typical bleary-eyed individual investors who tend to embrace the prevailing emotion of the crowd.

Wednesday, May 17, 2017

Bonus Video: This Morning's Selloff and Past Presidential "Panics"

Once playing, click the icon in the lower right corner for full screen. Focus should occur after a few seconds; if not, click the wheel to the left of the YouTube icon to adjust:

Quote of the Day: The term "Watergate" got you jumpy?

From Bespoke Investment Group's morning commentary (also, I shot a 5 minute video on past US political turmoil and the market that I'll be sending shortly [the YouTube upload is very slow this morning]):
The term “Watergate” has been thrown around a lot to describe recent events. Whenever any mention of Watergate comes up, you can forgive investors for becoming a bit jumpy. The S&P 500 fell nearly 50% between the week prior to the sentencing of the first five Watergate burglars in January 1973 and the month after the resignation of President Nixon. Of course, it’s ludicrous to pin that whole drop on Watergate. Inflation was making a parabolic move to double-digits YoY as the US economy choked on the 1973-74 oil embargo by OPEC in response to US foreign policy supporting Israel. The economy entered recession, and the unemployment rate spiked as high as 9%. President Nixon had rescinded gold convertibility of the dollar (dropping the gold standard, back in 1971. So to reiterate: it’s not the same, and nobody should expect a 50% decline in the US stock market on political headlines alone! Also, remember that back in 1998/1999, the Clinton-Lewinsky scandal and subsequent impeachment proceedings had little ultimate impact on equities.
As much as we like to focus on the day to day drama out of Washington, the financial markets are much bigger. That hasn’t changed with the most recent revelations, and the tiny fraction of decline we saw last night hardly foretells calamity ahead.
Emphasis mine...