“The desire for more, the fear of missing out, the tendency to compare against others, the influence of the crowd and the dream of the sure thing—these factors are near universal. Thus they have a profound collective impact on most investors and most markets. This is especially true at the market extremes. The result is mistakes—frequent, widespread, recurring, expensive mistakes.” —Howard Marks
Sunday, March 17, 2024
Economic Update: Problematic Inflation, Some Important History Of Our Assessment, And A Quick (important) Stock Chart Update (video)
Friday, March 15, 2024
Valuations & Sentiment Paint a Precarious Picture For Stocks (video)
Dear Clients, in today's snapshot I touch on the typical, and historically-dangerous-to-chase, pull-forward nature of parabolic moves.
Once playing, click the icon in the lower right corner for full screen. Focus should occur after a few seconds; if not, click the wheel to the left of the YouTube icon to adjust:
Thursday, March 14, 2024
Morning Note: Patience, an "absolute must!" --- (a must-read post for clients!)
To be sure,
"if patience is a virtue in life, it is an absolute must in trading and investing."
--Randy Finney (technical analyst and trader)
If you tend to think of stocks and your long-term portfolio synonymously, well, if you're a PWA client, I'd say don't! But recognizing that Wall Street has done such a masterful job of engraining such thinking into investor-psyche, the following is intended for those who do.
Tuesday, March 12, 2024
Morning Note: Key Highlights
This morning's inflation data, in the aggregate, came in a touch hotter than expected, but not to the point -- at least in pre-market action -- to derail the equity market's expectation of a mid-year rate cut.
Meanwhile, here are a few key highlights from our latest messaging herein:
Monday, March 11, 2024
Economic Update: Amid Mixed Signals, Evidence of Weakness (in labor and credit in particular) Remains Too Much To Ignore (video)
Attention clients, please be sure and take this one in when you have a few minutes.
Once playing, click the icon in the lower right corner for full screen. Focus should occur after a few seconds; if not, click the wheel to the left of the YouTube icon to adjust:
Friday, March 8, 2024
Strong bullish sentiment "hints at a top," although..... And a quick stocks, yields, dollar and gold update (video)
Once playing, click the icon in the lower right corner for full screen. Focus should occur after a few seconds; if not, click the wheel to the left of the YouTube icon to adjust:
Thursday, March 7, 2024
Morning Note: Manufacturing "Mini Upcycle" -- And -- Beware "The Other Side of the Parabola"
In our latest economic update I entertained the notion that the recent strengthening in manufacturing sector sentiment might prove to be a head fake.
On Monday, BCA suggested that that may indeed be the case: